78 research outputs found

    Trends and Cycles in Real-Time

    Get PDF
    This paper compares the results of applying several detrending methods to the Chilean monthly economic activity index (IMACEC) that arise from using real-time data sets. We show that data revisions are extremely important and that they can lead to systematically inconsistent estimates of the trend component. Furthermore, most of the filters commonly used to detrend time series in practice, are highly unstable and unreliable for end-of-sample estimation.

    On the determinants of the Chilean Economic Growth

    Get PDF
    This paper presents several methodologies for understanding the Chilean growth process. By using univariate time series representations, we find that the Chilean data is more consistent with exogenous than with endogenous growth models. Growth accounting exercises show that the mild growth rates of the sixties are mainly due to the accumulation of human and physical capital, while the booms of the mid seventies and the one from 1985 until 1998 are mainly due to TFP growth. We also find that among the most important determinants of the evolution of TFP are the evolution of terms of trade, improvements on the quality of capital, and the presence of distortions. In fact, distortions do not only eliminate the positive effects of improvements on the quality of capital, but also precede the evolution of technology shocks and increase their volatility. A dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model that explicitly incorporates the relative price of investment with respect to consumption goods, terms of tra de, and distortionary taxes is able to successfully replicate the impulse-response functions found on the data. This exercise suggests that distortions play a key role in explaining the growth dynamics of the Chilean experience.

    Is There Enough Evidence Against Absolute Convergence?

    Get PDF
    This paper analyzes whether or not the econometric methods usually applied to test for absolute convergence have provided this hypothesis a fair. I show that traditional (absolute and conditional) convergence tests are not consistent with even the simplest model that displays convergence. Furthermore, claims of divergence on the grounds of bimodalities in the distribution of GDP per capita can be made consistent with models in which neither divergence nor twin peaks are present in the long run.

    General Equilibrium Models: An Overview

    Get PDF
    This article reviews the literature on general equilibrium models, relevant to the Chilean economy, and revised versions of the papers presented at the Conference of General Equilibrium Models for the Chilean Economy organized by the Central Bank of Chile, that will be published in a book by the same name (edited by Rómulo Chumacero and Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2005). This introductory chapter provides a brief overview of the development and application of three families of GEMs: macroeconomic GEMs, computable general equilibrium models, and overlapping generations models. We also summarize the scope and main results of the twelve GEMs that comprise the volume.

    Chile’s Free Trade Agreements: How Big is The Deal?

    Get PDF
    Chile put into place broad free trade agreements (FTAs) with its two major trading partners: the EU (effective 2003) and the US (effective 2004). This paper quantifies their economic effects for the Chilean economy, stemming from the conventional trade components (lower tariffs and higher market access) and other aspects of the latter broad FTAs, including improved intellectual property rights, factor productivity gains, and their fiscal consequences (tax compensation, larger customs expenditure). The paper also considers that the country risk premium may decline and aggregate investment may rise in response to the institutional stability and policy credibility enhanced by the FTAs. Simulation results are reported for steady states and dynamic transition paths, based on a three-sector dynamic general equilibrium model for an open economy inhabited by infinitely-lived representative agents. The model is calibrated to the Chilean economy and the actual features of both trade agreements. Due to Chile’s high initial trade openness, the reported effects of FTAs on resource allocations, relative prices, expenditure composition, welfare, output, and aggregate consumption do not exceed 1% in any given period. On impact, the largest gains come from a lower risk premium that leads to a temporary consumption and investment boom, which is reverted in the long run as a result of larger net foreign liabilities. In steady state, the gains from improved factor productivity dominate all other effects.

    On the Power of Absolute Convergence Tests

    Full text link

    Does centralization imply better targeting?: evaluating emergency employment programs in Chile

    Get PDF
    This paper develops direct tests for evaluating the performance of two types of emergency employment programs put in place in Chile since 1999. Our results suggest: First, decentralized and market-driven programs (subsidies for hiring and training) are more efficient in terms of productivity, but are targeted to people that are less vulnerable to unemployment. Second, direct employment programs result in moderate increases of the income of the households of the participants. This increase may be outweighted by the costs (in present value) associated with higher school drop-out and participation rates. Third, if analyzed at a municipality level (comuna), centralized programs do not target municipalities with higher unemployment, increased vulnerability to unemployment, or even lower median income levels, but are strongly correlated with the political affiliation of its major. Finally, our results suggest that the population targeted in direct employment programs is not more vulnerable to unemployment than the actually unemployed.Departamento de Economí

    A Framework for Printing and Minting Plans

    Get PDF
    This paper presents alternative models for forecasting the demand for bills and coins of different denominations. When compared to the models often used, the root mean squared forecasting error is substantially reduced. The paper also develops a new framework to formulate the printing and minting programs by using density forecasts along with information on technological constraints and preferences of the policy maker.
    corecore